NRL Round 8
My Game Handicaps | Market (handicap and total points are market)
-7.5
-6.5 Tigers v Raiders | 48.5
+4.5
+1.5 Cowboys v Sharks | 52.5
+7.5
+3.5 Broncos v Bulldogs | 49.5
+20.5
+18.5 Dragons v Roosters | 52.5
-7.5
-5.5 Warriors v Dolphins | 49.5 @ Wellington
-0.5
-3.5 Storm v Rabbitohs | 50.5
-12.5
-11.5 Knights v Panthers | 49.5
-8.5
-7.5 Sea Eagles v Eels | 53.5
My Bets
3.5u Sharks -1.5 $1.90
3.5u Bulldogs -3.5 $1.84
3.5u Roosters -16.5 $1.90
4u Warriors -5.5 $1.90 BB
3.5u Rabbits +3.5 $1.90
3u Sea Eagles-Eels under 53.5 $1.90
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Notes
3.5u Sharks -1.5 $1.90
Sharks off a bye and prior loss, certainly have them rated top 4 and likey get key player ins; Cowboys very disappointing last week, some questions on the prior strength of opponent form, key data match up here poor, line looked well short; Sharks have won 14 last 16 H2H
3.5u Bulldogs -3.5 $1.84
Broncos still have up the 3 players in doubt and I expect late changes, even so, with Haas, Carrigan, Tawha, Jensen, Walsh and Hunt out this is now a very very thin list
3.5u Roosters -16.5 $1.90
Dragons lose Flanagan and then two key player outs, look to match up very poorly here, Roosters have some patches of play but their good has plenty of strike and points in them; Dargons have not covered this number in their last 7 games at 16.5 or higher vs teams above them on the table
4u Warriors -5.5 $1.90 BB
Warriors suited at home, physical match up looks strongly in their favour; Dolphins away form is poor, and now off hot, humid game in Darwin then into Auckland, and off Panthers; Warriors not a great record as home favs at the line but I had this close to 8.0 between them
3.5u Rabbits +3.5 $1.90
Like the Warriors a few weeks before them, the Rabbits have a very poor long term record in Melb, but this is not the Storm of past yrs; Rabbits have some strike, and when their attitude is on can defend strongly; Storm are in all sorts, edges in particular left leaking horribly and just not matching the physical contest; 3.5 well wider than where I am
2u Sea Eagles-Eels under 53.5 $1.90
Turbo missed 11 games last season and the Eagles attack points dropped by 10pts a game; Eels showed some improvement in D last week, Peter Gough is running at 84% unders, think 53.5 looks too high
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
Tigers minus
Sharks minus
Bulldogs minus
Roosters minus
Warriors minus
Rabbits plus
Panthers minus
Eagles minus
Game Tips
Tigers by 8
Sharks by 8
Bulldogs by 10
Roosters by 20
Warriors by 8
Rabbits by 8
Panthers by 12
Eagles by 6
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
-7.5
-6.5 Tigers v Raiders | 48.5
The Tigers welcome the Raiders to a fired-up Leichhardt Oval on Thursday night, but despite being installed as favourites at home, history delivers a stark warning — the Raiders have won eight of nine H2H meetings including four of the last five, with this fixture consistently producing grinding, low-scoring affairs that defy the expectations of both form and venue. The Raiders arrive significantly weakened by the twin losses of Josh Papalii and Hudson Young — their two most physically dominant forwards — which strips genuine forward punch from a side that relies heavily on that platform to control games, and it's a blow that gives the Tigers real hope of ending their H2H hoodoo, particularly with Ashley Klein officiating and a home crowd behind them on a short five-day turnaround.
The Tigers carry the better current form and metrics — attack improving, PCM differential dominant at +164.8, missed tackles among the competition's best — but the Raiders have shown a remarkable ability to win this fixture in ways that defy the statistical narrative, winning tight and winning ugly with a consistency that demands respect.
With the Tigers to respond at home, Raiders with three key outs and some very scrappy errors and discipline are easy to risk.
Tigers 26-18
+4.5
+1.5 Cowboys v Sharks | 52.5
The Cowboys welcome back three significant players in Nanai, Taulagi and Mahoney — returns that inject genuine pace, physicality and tempo into a side that has been struggling without them — but the Sharks arrive at QCB Stadium carrying one of the most dominant head-to-head records in the competition, having won 11 of 13 meetings including four of the last five, with the most recent two results producing 32-12 and 36-12 scorelines that left little doubt about the gulf between these sides when the Sharks are at their best.
Sharks are off a bye with their attack metrics have been quietly improving across recent weeks while the Cowboys' have been trending in the opposite direction — declining completion rates, rising errors, and a defence conceding at an alarming rate that the returning trio will need to address immediately.
I have the Sharks marked toward a top 4 to top 6 contender and certainly a level above this. They would be disappointed with their second half offering and loss to the Roosters last start, although a strong form line, and can do better here against an opponent very much a box of chocolates at present.
With Belinda Sharpe as ref we also might not see 54 points here.
Sharks 26-18
+7.5
+3.5 Broncos v Bulldogs | 49.5
The Broncos host the Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night in a fixture that their H2H record — seven wins from eight meetings — says should be straightforward, but the context surrounding this game makes it anything but. The loss of Haas is enormous for Brisbane, stripping their most powerful ball-carrier and primary attacking weapon from a forward pack that is already conceding over 2000 run metres per game, add then to this the very long list of injury outs now to include 4 middle forwards plus Walsh and Hunt.
The Bulldogs arrive on the back of two interesting offerings, the big lift and quality win over the Panthers and then the horrible sub par showing when touched up by the hapless Eels. Both sides are on short five and six-day turnarounds, both carry patchy home and away records at Suncorp this season, and the Broncos' home cover rate of just 16.7% in 2026 is one of the most alarming statistics in the competition for a team installed as favourites. They have tho won 7 of the last 8 v this opponent.
I believe there are at lease a further 2 to 3 in doubt for the Broncos of the team list that has been named, so we could well see further late team list changes and an even weakened list.
Bulldogs as away favs, and in against the Broncos are not flash records, but they get their chance here. A very very depleted opponent who look to be hanging on by a thread, and off such a poor offering last week I am sure we see the Dogs aim up here.
Bulldogs 24-14
+20.5
+18.5 Dragons v Roosters | 52.5
The Roosters host the Dragons at Allianz Stadium on Anzac Day afternoon in what is normally one of the highlight full-house games of the season. Now with a bit more drama and intrigue following the upheaval with the Dragons' sacking their coach and the obvious team change at #7.
The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4, and while they have some patchy periods of play, they also have some significant strike power and attack points in them when they put their foot down, like the second half last week v the Knights. While the Dragons arrive winless through seven rounds, averaging just 12.7 points away from home and carrying a second-half try average of 0.4 per game that remains the most alarming statistic in the competition. They do get the key change at #7 with Reed and also have Suli and Ryan Couchman back.
While the Dragons will lift early, I am happy to be against them sustaining this right through the first half and then being able to go with the Roosters if and when they choose to go up a gear or two. I’m sure the Roosters also see this as a nice challenge in seeing off the early lift and intent, patching it physically and then playing to their attacking strengths.
Roosters 36-14
-7.5
-5.5 Warriors v Dolphins | 49.5 @ Wellington
The Warriors host the Dolphins at Sky Stadium in Wellington on Saturday evening. The Dolphins arrive in genuinely difficult circumstances — back-to-back travel weeks, including the physically draining Darwin heat last week, followed by an immediate international trip across the Tasman, and will be without Kodi Nikorima at #6 while they still remain with an issue of quality work in the #9 role. The form metrics are declining across every measurable category, including a first-half try average of just 0.8 per game, leaving them almost entirely reliant on second-half scoring to stay competitive. The Warriors carry the superior metrics — attack improving across all L3 categories, defence solid, and home support effectively de facto in New Zealand.
The Warriors look a level above in performance at present, and should be well advantaged getting the Dolphins on this set-up (off Darwin then into Auckland). The Dolphins are impossible to place or be all that positive about at present, and down 0-18 last week, I’d suggest it was more the heat and humidity that stopped the Panthers more than anything else.
Happy to be with the Warriors to cover 6.0 here. They have some positive key ins likely here, and if we see them replicate a similar attitude and physical offerings as most of the last two outings, they can get the job done again.
Warriors 26-16
-0.5
-3.5 Storm v Rabbitohs | 50.5
The Storm host the Rabbitohs at AAMI Park on Saturday night in a fixture that their extraordinary home fortress record — 80% win rate across 60 games at this venue — but this is a Storm side off losing their last 5 and in my opinion way off what we have known of them in past years.
I am amazed that the markets have still positioned them as pronounced 3.5 favs here. I think this should be far closer to pick 'em and an even position between them. Five straight losses. L5 attack rank 16th — equal worst in the competition alongside the Raiders. L5 defence rank 16th — dead last. Attack rating declining ↓ across every single metric: run metres ↓, post contact metres ↓, line breaks ↓, tackle busts ↓, tries/comp ↓. Second-half tries for L5 just 0.8 — almost identical to the Dragons' structural collapse figure that has been the talking point all season. PCM differential -100.0 ↓ — the worst in the competition. Storm 2H tries for 0.8 per game — structural second-half collapse. This is a team in genuine crisis at every level.
The Rabbitohs can be a bit patchy, but their form is improving. Attack rating ↑ 1.28, line breaks ↑ 5.4, tries/comp ↑ 0.131, PCM differential improving ↑, missed tackles improving ↓, error differential improving ↑. Second-half tries for L5: 3.0 — one of the best second-half scoring figures in the competition.
They (Rabbitohs) also finish games strongly with 3.3 second half tries whereas the Storm don’t, they finish them poorly — 0.8 second-half tries.
Yes, the Storm have held a long-term hold over this opponent, even more so in Melbourne, but this was also the case only a few weeks back for the Warriors, having lost their prior 17 h2H and prior 10 in Melbourne. The Storm are not the side of days gone by, have some significant issues and can be beaten.
Adam Gee's 45-point historical average and the H2H total of 41.8 points both sit well under the 49.5 line, three independent large-sample filters all point to the total tries going under 9.5 at a 72-80% hit rate, and the Storm's second-half try average of just 0.8 per game means this figures to be a grinding, low-scoring affair that suits neither side's current capabilities. Points under and or tries under is certainly an angle here.
I’m sticking with opposing the Storm. I again watched them closely last week, that was a scrappy, poor-quality game, massive defensive issues on their left edge, not much better on the other and overall now way down on confidence and execution. The Rabbits have strike, big and physical through the middle, and they (and the coach) like lifting for these big games.
Rabbits 26-20
-12.5
-11.5 Knights v Panthers | 49.5
The Knights host the Panthers at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday afternoon, carrying the weight of five significant injury outs — Ponga, Best, Frizell, Lucas and Cant all unavailable — leaving a forward pack stripped of its physical foundation against a Panthers side that has won nine of ten H2H meetings and arrived at this ground seven times in the last decade without losing once.
Panthers are here off the back of four consecutive wins, including a dominant 40-point destruction of the Storm and a late Golden Point win in Darwin after leading 18-0 last week. I am cautious about not wanting to rate them at their best here, off the hot, humid sapping conditions in Darwin (although they do have a 9-day turnaround), and how that then might affect them through the coming weeks. Casey McLean returns to add further depth and edge strike.
Love the positive make over and approach of the Knights this season, and again last week we saw them really attack the game through the first half, but this long list of quality outs has certainly brought them back a level or two. They also now face an opponent with one of the best D’s in the comp.
Expect Panthers just get the job done, but not a game I want to play with. 12 looks about right, but happy to watch this one.
Panthers 28-16
-8.5
-7.5 Sea Eagles v Eels | 53.5
The Sea Eagles host the Eels at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon in a derby fixture that loses a bit of its edge with the confirmation that Tom Trbojevic — Manly's most dangerous weapon and the player who single-handedly elevates their attack from good to elite. When Turbo missed 11 games last season, the Eagles' points scored dropped an average of 10 pts per game, so clearly a key out.
The Eagles arrive on ten days' rest, which historically produces a 68.8% win and cover rate for this club — a meaningful structural advantage that partially offsets the Trbojevic blow — while the Eels come in with Tuilagi and Russell returning to a list that has been ravaged by injury outs. They did, however, show some real resolve to respond last week to the horrible 50-point touch-up from the Titans. The question now is how much of that was a big motivation lift with the in-club events around them; is there letdown, and what offering and level do they now bring? Also, an interesting angle here that the Eels have played their last 5 games at home.
While the Eagles have been winning, I still have significant questions over the depth and quality. These next 3 to 4 games will start to tell us more, and certainly a tougher road without Tom.
Peter Gough's 83.3% under rate in 2026 (which is not dissimilar to last season), these two have previously offered a H2H average of just 46.2 points across twelve prior meetings, and three independent large-sample filters all showing 67-70% under rates on the total tries line make the scoring markets the clear focus, and under the key lines — the 9.5 total and the points under.
Expect that the Eagles can get the job done, but it looks like a tight, interesting contest. Lower scoring and positions around this are my play.
Eagles 24-18
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
Check Out Our Podcasts
season pass
- Full 33 Week Season
- Weekly Game Previews
- Free SMS Messages
most popular